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Incorporate extreme scenarios and uncertainty into planning.

Planning in Nepal is reactive; plans are updated to include new developments but not used to structure and direct development. Rarely does planning take into account the potential impacts of proposed new development, particularly across multiple combined projects, and consider how to mitigate the potential impact before construction begins. To reduce risks in Nepal, this type of planning needs to become formalized. Planning also needs to address not only what is expected to happen, but also the unexpected. The intensity of the 2014 flood underscores the danger of unexpected events. Even in cases where there may be a great degree of uncertainty, planning needs to take into account scenarios above a 100-year, or similar design return period. In particular, flood planning should include the possibility of protection failures. Current assumptions that protection levels are adequate and failure scenarios do not need to be incorporated into planning are highly flawed and dramatically amplify current risks.

PERC Reports