A network percolation-based contagion model of flood propagation and recession in urban road networks
In this study, we propose a contagion model as a simple and powerful mathematical approach for predicting the spatial spread and temporal evolution of the onset and recession of floodwaters in urban road networks. A network of urban roads resilient to flooding events is essential for the provision of public services and for emergency response. The spread of floodwaters in urban networks is a complex spatial–temporal phenomenon. This study presents a mathematical contagion model to describe the spatial–temporal spread and recession process of floodwaters in urban road networks. The findings suggest that the proposed mathematical contagion model offers great potential to support emergency managers, public officials, citizens, first responders, and other decision-makers for flood forecast in road networks.
Fan, Chao; Jiang, Xiangqi; Mostafavi, Ali
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