Evaluating Flood Resilience Strategies for Coastal Megacities
Integration of models for storms and floods, damages and protections, should aid resilience planning and investments.
Despite trillions of dollars of assets located in coastal flood-prone areas, investments in protection have often been inadequate, postponed for short-term economic reasons, for lack of consensus on how to properly evaluate the return on investment, or from the fear of making irreversible choices that become suboptimal over time. To help inform policy decisions, we have developed a multidisciplinary scientific approach to evaluate flood management strategies. It combines probabilistic risk assessment of hurricanes and storm surge with vulnerability determination of exposed assets at a census level, accounting for sources of uncertainty and the timing of investments in storm-surge flood-risk protection. We applied this methodology to New York City (NYC)—one of the most exposed coastal megacities—working with local policy-makers.
American Association for the Advancement of Science
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