The future of forecasts: impact-based forecasting for early action
This guide outlines the steps and tools needed to develop impact-based forecasting:
from understanding risk to producing, issuing and verifying fit for purpose impactbased forecasts and warnings. Designed with, and for, people working in impactbased forecasting, early warning and early action, the compiled information and
recommendations will be useful for everyone from technical staff in national
hydrological and meteorological services to disaster risk management, humanitarian
and development agencies. The guide includes case studies from countries around the
world to highlight the development and use of impact-based forecasting services for
users and producers. A result of joint work between the Red Cross Red Crescent and
the UK Met Office, this document aims to inspire the co-production of impact-based
forecasting services that use weather, climate information, and risk analysis to reduce
risk. The guide brings together the forecast-based financing methodology to trigger
early action with the impact-based forecasting technical expertise of the UK Met
Office and other experts in this field. Each chapter contains recommended steps and
processes, as well as online resources for more detailed guidance.
Climate Centre;International Federation for Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies;UK Met Office;UK Aid
RCC, IFRC, Met Office, UK Aid
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